As the impact of climate change deepens, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has said Nigerians, especially those in the cities and riverine areas should expect more floods.
The Director General, NiMet, Prof. Mansur Bako Matazu stated this at the sidelines of the public release of the 2023 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) Tuesday in Abuja..
The NiMet DG said the SCP has been released early in the year to give ample lead time to the relevant Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) to integrate the predictions into their planning.
“Flood is a natural event and with the increase in climate change activities there will be more floods. This is because climate change is due to increasing temperatures. With increased temperature, tye atmosphere will be more pregnant with more water vapour. That means more rain. These rain will come in high intensity but short duration. So the length of the season has been reducing but the intensity and the amount of rain have been increasing. Thar gives more volume of water in limited time and that is what causes flash floods in cities and Riverine areas due to overflowing of water” he explained.
On rainfall he said this year the rain will “be a little normal but pockets of extreme weather events.”
“We have the time of thick rainfall between July to September but we are expecting flash floods around the cities and riverine floods for those that live around the flood plains” he further stated..
“For states in the North, we are experiencing dry spell in June and July for a between two to three weeks.The growing season will be normally with pockets of anomalies in parts of Yobe, Solomon, Katsina and some North Central states” Prof. Matazu further explained.
During his keynote speech at the event, the Minister of Aviation, Sen. Hadi Sirika said Nigerians should take the weather prediction seriously as NiMet weather forecast has 98 percent accuracy rate.
Giving further details of the SCP, he said “the rainfall onset date is predicted to be earlier than the long-term average in most parts of the country. However, parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kano, Jigawa, and Yobe in the north and Cross River, Ebonyi, Imo, and Rivers in the south are likely to experience a delayed onset.”
“The Onset is expected to become established in early March from the coastal states of Bayelsa,
Rivers, and Akwa Ibom; in April for the Inland States of the South; in May around the Central States and around July in the northern States. The onset dates will range from 2nd March to 7th July 2023″ he stated.
Sen. Sirika said “an early End of Season (EoS) is predicted over parts of the South (especially in Osun, Ondo, Edo, Delta, Imo, Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, and eastern parts of Ogun and Lagos) and parts of Yobe, Adamawa, Niger, Nasarawa and Kogi.”
However, an extended rainfall season is predicted over parts of Gombe, Kaduna, Kwara, Enugu, Anambra, western Ogun, and Lagos. The end of season period is expected to range from the 26th of September till 25th of December, further details show.
“The length of growing season in most places in the country is likely to be near the long-term average, except for some parts of the northern states such as Katsina, Jigawa, and Kano where
shorter than the long-term average length of the growing season is anticipated. The season is expected to range from 84 to 283 days. Abuja and surrounding States are expected to witness
between 170 and 230 days” he said.
Furthermore, “the annual total rainfall is predicted to be Normal to above normal in most parts of the country. However, in parts of Yobe, Jigawa, Kano, Bauchi, Jigawa, Kaduna and FCT that are likely to
observe below normal to near normal annual rainfall amounts.”
“The annual rainfall amount is expected to range from 420mm in the far northernmost parts to 3253 mm in the coastal areas.
On dry spell, the forecast show that “dry spell occurrences have characterised our seasons in recent years. In 2023, we should also prepare for its occurrence between June and early July as dry spell lasting between 15 to 21 days is in the forecast, especially from the central parts of the country to the North.”
Other forecasts such as the temperature for the first 5 months of the year, Malaria and meningitis forecast along with the socio-economic implications of these forecasts are contained in explicit details in the documents