The Tinubu Stakeholders Forum (TSF) has described Nigeria’s victory in the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) arbitration over the Mambilla Hydropower Project as a significant development for the country’s finances, power sector and broader economic prospects.
The ICC tribunal rejected Sunrise Power’s claims against Nigeria, including its $2.35 billion claim arising from the long-running dispute over the project. The tribunal also rejected a separate $400 million claim linked to a proposed settlement, bringing the total potential exposure addressed in the related proceedings to more than $3.38 billion.
In a statement by its Chairman Ahmad Sajoh and Secretary Danjuma Sada, TSF said the significance of the Mambilla ruling extends far beyond the courtroom.
It said: “For Nigeria’s economy, the decision represents the avoidance of a potentially substantial financial liability, the recovery of legal costs and, potentially, the removal of a long-standing legal obstacle to one of the country’s most ambitious power projects.
“The Mambilla project has for years represented one of Nigeria’s major untapped infrastructure and energy opportunities. Its prolonged legal dispute has been an additional obstacle around a project capable of contributing substantially to Nigeria’s electricity generation capacity.”
TSF noted that the ruling comes at a critical juncture in the Tinubu administration’s efforts to resolve long-standing structural and financial challenges in Nigeria’s electricity sector.
“The timing is particularly strategic as the Federal Government is currently implementing a structured plan to settle ₦3.3 trillion in verified legacy power-sector obligations,” it noted
Highlighting the scale of the victory, the Forum emphasized that the defeated Sunrise claim standing at $3.38 billion, exceeded the entire $2.3 billion legacy power-sector settlement program.
“Eliminating this major liability prevents a massive financial drain, giving the government the necessary fiscal headroom to address inherited obligations and focus on sustainable power sector reforms,” it said.
TSF said successful implementation of Mambilla would have implications far beyond increasing electricity generation. The expanded grid power supply would support the growth of manufacturing, mining, agriculture, technology and other productive sectors, while creating opportunities for new businesses, employment and investment across the economy.
According to TSF, the successful resolution of the arbitration also sends an important signal to international investors about Nigeria’s willingness and capacity to defend its economic interests through established international dispute-resolution mechanisms while maintaining contractual and legal discipline.
The Forum urged the Federal Government to build on the arbitration victory by accelerating the next phase of work on the Mambilla project, while maintaining transparency, commercial discipline and strong contractual safeguards.
